2024 NFL Season Betting Preview: Super Bowl, MVP, playoff odds, win totals
A new year of NFL football means fresh opportunities to beat the oddsmakers. Here is an overview of the main NFL futures markets ahead of the 2024 campaign.
TORONTO — A day-game-after-night for the Toronto Blue Jays, facing lefty Christopher Sanchez, landed Alejandro Kirk an afternoon as the designated hitter, a brief respite for a catcher who’s been especially busy after Danny Jansen was traded July 27.
In the 35 games since that deal, Kirk’s been behind the plate in 26 of them, logging 206.1 innings, while also serving as DH on three occasions, including Wednesday’s 4-2 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. That total would probably be even higher if he hadn’t missed a couple games after being hit by a pitch on the left elbow July 30.
Carrying such a heavy load isn’t new for the 25-year-old, who in recent seasons has really been leaned on to cover Jansen injury absences, a 27-game September last year a prime example. But now that he’s the club’s main backstop, without an obvious partner in the farm system coming up behind him, his work now is especially important for the Blue Jays, who must decide this winter how to complement him.
“He’s doing a really good job,” said manager John Schneider. “He’s catching a lot. And this is a time where we want to see what he can do, not just at the plate but behind the plate, and how he holds up physically, how he’s holding up mentally. It’s a tough spot to be in. And it’s been nice that he’s been right in the middle of what we’ve been doing offensively the last few weeks. Hopefully he can finish strong.”
Brian Serven, the backup since Jansen’s departure, is a pre-arbitration player with an option remaining, so he can certainly factor into the 2025 mix. But if something were to happen to Kirk, there’s precious little depth to cover such a pivotal position, which means adding a catcher will need to be on the club’s off-season to-do list.
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What type of partner Kirk needs is an interesting question. Last year, Kirk logged a career high 775 innings in 99 games, 84 of them starts, while this season, he’s at 644 in 78 games, all but three starts, and counting. If the Blue Jays want to keep him in that range, then they’ll ideally need a backup capable of contributing at least some offence, but if they want to push him to 100-plus games, it changes how they shop.
Jansen figures to be the best two-way catcher in a relatively thin free-agent class but he may want a more primary role than reconstituting the partnership he and Kirk formed the past 4½ seasons. There’s also balancing the team’s various spending needs to consider, which means the more work Kirk can handle, the easier the Blue Jays’ decision becomes.
Whichever route they go, Kirk is enjoying the extra work — “I like to be out there every single day,” he said — and insists it agrees with him.
“I feel great. I’m taking care of myself,” he added, while saying he isn’t thinking about how many games would be ideal for him to target next year. “I don’t focus on that. I just focus on being ready to help the team every day and to be out there every day.”
Defensively, Kirk rates in elite territory, ranking in the 93rd percentile for both pitch framing and caught stealing above average, while sitting in the 83rd percentile for blocks above average.
While he was also among the league’s top framers a year ago, his caught stealing above average has gone from minus-one in 2023 to plus-five this season, which is why he feels that’s the area of his game that’s improved most.
A couple of adjustments on his set up and with his lower half, along with gains in his arm strength are the reasons why “I feel much better this year throwing,” he said.
How extra work might affect his offence is another question as his bat hasn’t returned to his all-star 2022 season levels, when he posted a .786 OPS. Last year he dipped to .692 while this season he’s at .662 after following Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s RBI double in the first inning with an RBI double of his own that gave the Blue Jays a short-lived 2-1 lead.
Of note is that since July 27, when Jansen was traded, he’s batting .286 with three homers, five doubles and 19 RBIs, and if he can perform at that level at the plate, the Blue Jays would be in a good spot behind the plate.
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“At-bats are more consistent, which I think helps for anyone, and he’s controlling the zone better,” said Schneider. “That’s kind of what I see just thinking about it quickly. When he’s really good, he’s controlling the zone and he’s got a pretty simple swing. That’s what it comes down to with him. If he’s swinging at good pitches, he’s usually pretty good. He’s got elite bat-to-ball skills. So I think it’s strike-zone command and not really budging.”
Also not budging on Wednesday was Bowden Francis, who allowed three runs over six innings of work against a top lineup after an absurdly dominant August that earned him AL pitcher of the month honours.
He recovered from a rough beginning in which he surrendered a solo shot to Kyle Schwarber on his second pitch of the game and a two-run homer to Kody Clemens in the second inning to keep the Phillies under wraps the next four frames before a Rogers Centre crowd of 23,768.
Schneider described it as another outing in which Francis continued to “check some boxes” as the Blue Jays cast forward to 2025, something they’re very much doing with Kirk and their catching, too.
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