NHL Draft (home page)

May 8, 2024

PHILADELPHIA — Much of Jose Berrios’s success this season has been rooted in the remarkable job he’s done containing left-handed hitters. Lefties have thrived against Berrios throughout his career, and the numbers grew particularly pronounced over the last two years — the Blue Jays right-hander entered this season having allowed them to hit .280/.337/.482 against him since the beginning of 2022.

And yet, his first seven starts of 2024 were a remarkably different story, as Berrios held lefties to a .088/.188/.175 line — each category ranking among the five-best qualified pitchers in baseball. He did it by developing a cutter over the winter and refining his sinker command against that side of the platoon, using those two pitches more often in place of a four-seam fastball he gave up 15 homers off of to left-handers over the last two seasons.

But it’s one thing to do that against the Royals or the Rockies; it’s another against the Phillies. Entering Tuesday, only four teams had a higher slugging percentage against right-handed pitching than Philadelphia, and no team had a higher slug against right-handed breaking balls, which the Phillies had launched an MLB-best 14 homers off of. Four of the Phillies’ top-seven qualified hitters this season by wRC+ just so happen to bat left-handed.

So, Tuesday, at a raucous Citizens Bank Park, an irresistible force paradox played out. Berrios on the bump. The Phillies, MLB’s winningest-team, stacking six left-handed hitters in their lineup against him. And Berrios was the one to give.

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Left-handed Phillies hitters went 5-for-11 with two walks, two hit-by-pitches, and two homers against Berrios, as the AL pitcher of the month for April came crashing back to earth in a 10-1 loss to the Phillies. Berrios’ eight runs allowed were his most since his first start of 2023; his 3.2 innings pitched were his least since Aug. 5, 2022.

Now, Berrios and the Blue Jays aren’t exactly alone in getting starched by MLB’s hottest team. The Phillies have won 18 of their last 21 — including 11 straight at home — with a +67 run differential over that span. But that makes it no less disheartening to see one of the few good stories the Blue Jays have provided in 2024 — Berrios pitching like a Cy Young contender over his first seven starts — smashed to smithereens.

But if you’re analytically inclined, you perhaps saw a correction like this coming. Berrios entered Tuesday’s outing with a 1.44 ERA that stood in stark contrast to his 4.93 xERA, which is calculated based on the amount and quality of contact against a given pitcher. Berrios’ xERA was so high because he was carrying a hard-hit rate and average exit velocity allowed that ranked within the bottom 10 per cent of the league. And for all that he’d done well in 2024, his strikeout rate was five percentage points below his career average.

And yet, against the Phillies, it wasn’t strikeouts or hard contact that did Berrios in. He struck out a third of the batters he faced and allowed only two balls in play harder than 95 m.p.h. Rather, it was the lefties that got him. Again and again and again.

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Berrios struck out the first left-hander he faced on the night, Kyle Schwarber, but couldn’t retire the second, Bryce Harper — the two-time MVP singled to left off a four-seamer at the end of a plucky, eight-pitch battle. Harper came around to score moments later, as Nick Castellanos pulled a ball into left that Davis Schneider slipped trying to corral and the Phillies took a first-inning lead.

Second inning, similar refrain. Struck out the first lefty (Brandon Marsh), gave up a single off a four-seamer to the second (Bryson Stott). The difference this time was the extent of the damage as, two batters later, Kody Clemens saw a changeup he could get his left-handed bat head out in front of and clubbed it 383 feet to right.

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Of course, this is what the Phillies do. They’ve now plated one run or more prior to the third inning in 17 of their last 20 games. Over that three-week span, the Phillies have scored 45 runs in the first two innings. The Blue Jays have scored 44 runs in the first two innings all season.

Adding on runs is another thing the Phillies do — they’ve scored seven or more in 11 of 37 games (the Blue Jays have done that in four of 36). And while Berrios was able to work around a couple baserunners in the third, he got tagged by a lefty again in the fourth, as Clemens tripled off another four-seamer to cash Philadelphia’s fourth run.

A Garrett Stubbs walk and Schwarber hit by pitch — the Phillies DH went around on the pitch that hit his back foot but the check-swing appeal didn’t go the Blue Jays way — put Berrios squarely in the danger zone with the bases loaded and one out. And although Berrios managed to get Whit Merrifield to go down swinging at the end of a seven-pitch battle, the next guy walking to the plate is the last guy a pitcher wants to face in a spot like that:

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Yeah, he’ll do that. Anyway, out came John Schneider to remove Berrios from his worst outing in over a year, and at some point during the pitching change, drowned out by the bedlam of 39,492 still going nuts around him, the Blue Jays manager got into it with third base umpire Paul Clemons, who made the check swing call, and home plate umpire Andy Fletcher, who tossed Schneider from the game.

Can you blame him? Schneider’s been watching what you’ve been watching. He’s tried every line with the media; he’s supported his players; he’s been blunt when they’ve underperformed; he’s pushed them to play with more urgency; he’s moved hitters around the lineup; he’s started playing Davis Schneider every day; he’s broken the glass around Daniel Vogelbach twice in the last week.

And did he really need a front row seat to watch his offence go strikeout, groundout, groundout on six Cristopher Sanchez pitches the inning following Harper’s blast?

The Blue Jays couldn’t get any lift against Sanchez, the Phillies sinkerballer having a sneaky good season, making 13 outs on the ground, including two double plays. Toronto hitters made 18 of their 27 outs on three pitches or less. The top four in the batting order went 2-for-15 with a walk. The entire team went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. What else is new? You’ve seen it all before.

Well, actually, you haven’t seen Berrios get hit like that by lefties this year. That was a new wrinkle from these Blue Jays. The result wasn’t. Wednesday, they’ll try for a series split with Chris Bassitt on the mound. Lefties are hitting .354/.462/.631 against him this season.

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