British track and field body charged with corporate manslaughter over Paralympic athlete’s death
The governing body for track and field in Britain and a sports official have been charged with manslaughter over the death of a Paralympic athlete who was hit on the head by a metal pole during training in 2017.
We’re at the season’s official halfway point, where by now, there’s usually a good number of teams who know their playoff hopes are cooked. Take the Western Conference: the Chicago Blackhawks are 17 points back, they’re cooked. The San Jose Sharks, cooked. Nashville, Anaheim, cooked, cooked.
The previous season it was even more dramatic. On Jan. 8 of last season, the Ottawa Senators were just behind Columbus for 15th in the conference and16 points out of a playoff spot. In the West multiple teams were 15-plus points out. Teams being dead and buried by American Thanksgiving is usually a thing, and even more certainty usually comes with the halfway point.
But this year, the East is a bit of a tangled mess. The “worst” team in the Conference is the Buffalo Sabres, who are 4-5-1 in their last 10, and … somehow just seven points back with half a season to go. There is reason to think they’re better than their record. The New York Rangers have been a rolling dumpster fire, yet they’re just four points out. One point behind them, at five back, is a New York Islanders team whose fans have been chanting for the ouster of their GM, yet they remain a three- or four-game win streak away from having a post-season shot.
So, let’s go through it. With 16 teams in the conference, and 16 teams with playoff hopes at the halfway point, which squads are not much better than “mathematically alive,” and which teams are actually going to contend, and possibly break through?
The standings by raw points:
The better piece of analysis is probably done using points percentage, but it’s a little harder to process in terms of what teams need to do to catch one another, and hey – you still have to earn the raw points to catch up, so just keep “games played” in your mind as we discuss this.
Six teams are going to make playoffs in the East, for sure, book it:
Toronto
Florida
Tampa Bay
Washington
New Jersey
Carolina
The Athletic’s playoff projections (all odds below are from that same source) have five of those teams with a 99-per-cent chance to make playoffs, with Tampa Bay at 98 per cent.
Now let’s talk about the conference’s other 10 teams.
You may have noticed the Bruins are not on that above list despite being third in the Atlantic and having a long history of success. Here’s why: So far this season, they’re not very good.
The goal differential of the teams above are mostly plus-20 or better, while the Bruins are minus-24. They’re getting league-worst goaltending.
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They could very well miss the playoffs.
They do have some things going for them, most notable their elite talent Teams with David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy and even Jeremy Swayman don’t typically look this bad for long. They will most likely pull out of it and play better, but I’m still going to pick two teams to below them to make the playoffs.
Current playoff odds: 39 per cent. Shockingly low. The door is open for other teams.
CBJ is an awesome story, rising up in the face of tremendous adversity with the tragic loss of Johnny Gaudreau. They have several of the NHL’s more unheralded players, as Kirill Marchenko (six-foot-three, age 24) is on pace for 34 goals and 90 points, while Dmitri Voronkov (six-foot-five, age 24) already has 17 goals with half a season to go. Zach Werenski is having a year that might get him Norris Trophy votes (46 points in 41 games), and Sean Monahan has been excellent. If they didn’t have the second-worst goaltending in the league this season, they’d already be well inside the playoff cut line.
That said, I still don’t think this is a playoff team. They lack depth, and are still waiting for some of their young players to round the corner and go from prospect to true difference-makers.
Current playoff odds: 19 per cent, right about what you’d expect.
Pittsburgh Penguins – JB’s PICK #1
Here’s why I think the Penguins get in: they desperately want to for Sidney Crosby’s sake, and for the pride of GM Kyle Dubas, so they’re going to be buyers. They opened the season as a punchline, but their original plan remains intact: to take another run with their core of proven veterans, and to hope their experience takes over in the biggest games.
So they’ll add, while many of the teams in this article are going to recognize they aren’t Cup contenders, and will sell. Post deadline, this team still will be pushing for playoffs.
Current playoff odds: 22 per cent.
Ottawa Senators – JB’s PICK #2
Like the Bruins, the Sens have some top-end talent, Tim Stutzle has taken a step into that elite class for me, and Brady Tkachuk is built for playoffs. Drake Batherson and Jake Sanderson are legit. They also have an owner (Michael Andlauer) who’s new and would love to get some playoff gates while getting their young players the experience of big games. think they’ll add as well.
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If Linus Ullmark can get (and stay) healthy, they’ve got the type of team that would be fun in playoffs too.
Current playoff odds: 59 per cent! That seems really high, but they’re pretty legit.
The Canadiens are scorching hot, having won eight of their past 10 and beaten every recent Stanley Cup champion going back to 2019 in that time. They’ve called up goalie Jakub Dobes, who’s been brilliant in a small sample. And all of that is great for a team hoping to show some moments of brightness in what had been looking like a dark year.
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But this isn’t a playoff team, and they will presumably sell barring a shocking next month, so I don’t see them as a legitimate playoff contender just yet. But progress is progress.
Current playoff odds: Five per cent.
Here’s a team where a model would be missing something: they’ve changed coaches, and it’s changed the way they play, their look, and their self-belief. They’re hot since Todd McLellan took over and with five straight wins, look more like what was expected this season: a team that should challenge to get in after barely missing last year.
And that’s where I see them: as a team that will be around the cut line in April, and is more likely to buy than sell at the deadline (in some small way), as they’re dying to take steps forward in their rebuild.
Current playoff odds: Four per cent! This doesn’t factor in the new coach bump, methinks.
We had Danny Briere on Real Kyper and Bourne on Tuesday, and he all but doubled down on what Keith Jones said to us the week prior: they are not Cup contenders, and so they will not be adding to make the playoffs.
And so, expect this team to make a couple trades to try to get better for the future.
Current playoff odds: Six per cent.
New York Rangers
I still think the Rangers could (and very well might) make the playoffs, as ugly as it’s been. There are so few points that separate them from the wild-card spots. They’ve recently been good, and they still have so much talent. I’m actually shocked they haven’t changed coaches yet to look for that little bump of momentum.
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But as bad as it’s been, they’ll have some run where they find it, they may even make further moves to try to improve, and I think they’ll be sniffing around the playoffs come April.
Current playoff odds: 20 per cent.
New York Islanders
I’ll say this for my Islanders: whatever could go wrong this season has gone wrong. And while they may not be a thrill ride to watch, they’re not a bad team. The D-corps is one of the more solid among all these teams we’re discussing, with Alexander Romanov-Noah Dobson, Adam Pelech-Ryan Pulock and Isaiah George-Scott Mayfield as their back end. When they’re healthy, they lack dynamic forwards but still have a ton of solid pros who “do it the right way.” Ilya Sorokin has better to give too, which we may yet see when Semyon Varlamov returns and takes some of the heat off the goalie, who’s playing way too many games right now.
They’ll likely trudge their way to about 91 points, then wait and see how low the bar for playoff entry drops.
Current playoff odds: 26 per cent.
And finally, the…
Buffalo Sabres
I think a D-corps that includes Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Bowen Byrum and Mattias Samuelsson should win more consistently than they do. There is potential. It’s not so much that I think the Sabres are worse than many of the teams above, they’re just the furthest back, with the most teams to climb over, and they’re not good enough for me to think they’re going to make big gains on everyone.
And so, another year of frustration seems likely, though I won’t call them “cooked” just yet. Al dente, maybe, but not cooked.
Current playoff odds: four per cent.