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One of the biggest miscalculations the Toronto Blue Jays made before their 74-win 2024 season was that the production of players that had underperformed the previous year would bounce back.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a stellar season after an unimpressive 2023, but the bet on internal improvement from George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Daulton Varsho faltered as each was below-average offensively. 

Whatever the Blue Jays do in the remainder of the off-season, it looks like they will be making a similar wager again. Adding an impact bat like Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander, or Pete Alonso would change the complexion of the team’s lineup, but the 2025 Blue Jays aren’t going anywhere unless existing lineup staples collectively improve on what they did this year.

A better result seems probable based on Steamer projections, almost exclusively due to the likelihood that Bo Bichette doesn’t repeat his worst-case-scenario 2024:

This paints a somewhat rosy picture that might not seem realistic for Blue Jays fans who just saw the hope for internal improvement fall on its face.

To interrogate whether the existing core can be a source of meaningful improvement for the club — or whether it’s doomed to repeat its 2024 sins, let’s go player by player.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero’s year-to-year performance has been a rollercoaster since he broke out in 2021, and his Steamer projection doesn’t leave much room for regression from a stellar 2024.

Still, there isn’t much about last season that looks flukey for Vladdy. Guerrero maintained walk and strikeout rates that were each well above average while producing some of the best contact quality in the majors.

While his BABIP (.342) was on the high end, his xwOBA (.410) was actually a touch higher than his real number (.398). Although those numbers were out of whack for him in 2023, in every other year of his career, they’ve been within .004 of each other.

In other words, Statcast metrics have usually done a stellar job of capturing how the way Guerrero hits the ball translates into production. Last season they didn’t see anything luck-aided in his output. 

Should Toronto add another middle-of-the-lineup thumper, he may lose a handful of intentional walks, but he had just 12 last year and hasn’t dipped below five in any year since 2021 — so don’t expect a cratering walk rate.

Expect a big 2025 from Guerrero. 

Verdict: Projection looks fair

Bo Bichette

Bichette’s projection essentially treats his injury-plagued 2024 as a mulligan, which is tough to argue with. Between 2019 and 2023, Bichette hit .299/.340/.487, and his wRC+ (127) ranked 35th among all qualified hitters — right between Manny Machado and Ketel Marte.

Guys of that calibre don’t generally fall off a cliff at the age of 26.

There isn’t a lot in his 2024 statistics to be encouraged by, but for what it’s worth, his xwOBA (.303) was way higher than his actual number (.264). Only three of the 284 hitters who put at least 200 balls in play last season had a bigger shortfall.

The combination of injuries and bad luck was too much to overcome, but Bichette has talent and youth on his side. His projection calls for him to be slightly worse at the plate than he’s been for most of his career (118 wRC+), but for now, it’s safe to assume that 2024 was an unfortunate outlier. 

Verdict: There’s some uncertainty here, but we’ll call it fair.

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Alejandro Kirk

After two relatively disappointing seasons with the bat, Kirk is primed to play more than ever before with Danny Jansen in Tampa Bay — and presumed backup Tyler Heineman is unlikely to play more than necessary to keep the 2022 all-star fresh.

While a larger role should lead to a strong fWAR total thanks to Kirk’s excellent defensive value, his Steamer projection calls for an offensive resurgence that Toronto can’t bank on.

The .271/.348/.413 line the projection system calls for is a far cry from what Kirk has shown lately. The power output (11 home runs and a .142 ISO) is particularly outlandish for a player who only hit five balls over the fence last year. Over the last two seasons, 186 hitters have taken at least 800 trips to the plate, and Kirk’s .106 ISO ranks 176th among them.

Kirk’s above-average max exit velocity from 2024 (112.9 mph) shows there is some dormant pop in his bat, and he used to post pretty solid contact-quality metrics. He may rediscover his power stroke, but it’s far more likely that he sprays almost exclusively singles and his strong strikeout and walk numbers drive near-average results at the plate — just as they’ve done in each of the last two years.

Verdict: Projection is extremely bullish.

Daulton Varsho

Varsho is an odd case because he’s coming off shoulder surgery, and it’s unclear how much that will affect his 2025.

The outfielder is expected to miss the start of the season, but whether the injury lingers, recurs, or limits him when he plays is up in the air.

Ultimately Varsho’s projection might be about right for the wrong reasons. Steamer is giving him a 101 wRC+, which would be the second-highest number of his career, and perhaps too much to ask. The projection also sees him making 562 trips to the plate, which seems aggressive considering his injury situation.

At the same time, it sees Varsho producing negative defensive value, which is ludicrous for the Gold Glover. Projection systems generally regress defensive numbers heavily to the mean because they can vary so much from season to season. That’s smart as a general rule, but there are elite defenders who do not deserve this treatment, and Varsho is one of them.

It’s unclear what kind of season awaits the centre fielder in 2025, but 2.0 fWAR would not be a surprising outcome, all things considered. 

Verdict: Projection looks fair…?

George Springer

At first glance, a projection of .244/.319/.412 doesn’t seem outlandish for Springer, but it’s a significant bump up from his 2024 (.220/.303/.371). It’s also significantly better than his 2023 by wRC+ (110 vs. 104).

Hoping a 35-year-old player will have his best year since he was 32 after a couple of decline seasons is a big ask. Springer’s 2024 included a respectable xwOBA (.322), but he also had the worst max exit velocity of his career by three mph (110.6), suggesting his top-end power has deserted him. He also saw his groundball rate spike to career-high levels:

Springer has a respectable offensively floor because he still draws walks and doesn’t strike out too much, but he’s likely to be a low-end starter at this point in his career.

His projection probably undersells his defence and base running a touch — both of which have held up relatively well into his mid-thirties — but the Blue Jays will have to be surprised and thrilled if his bat is comfortable above-average again.

Verdict: Projection looks overly optimistic

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