Ice Tilt: Analyzing Dallas’ ‘rope-a-dope’ defence
The Dallas Stars have had several “slow starts” in the first period during these playoffs but, as Justin Bourne writes, their rope-a-dope style creates a bit of an illusion.
The Western Conference Final has been a fascinating test case for the idea of Ice Tilt, which you’ll recall is simply a measure of where the players are on average over a rolling period of two minutes. To have the “Tilt” in your team’s favour, you’ll need the average of the bodies to be playing more on the offensive half of the ice than your own.
Using this, we can tell which team is taking it to the other one and start to see how the game was played out beyond just our eye test.
I said this conference final is a fascinating test case, because some interesting information is by Ice Tilt.
Case in point: when the Oilers absolutely took the game to the Dallas Stars in the first period of Game 3, it wasn’t some outlier for a Stars team that is generally considered to be very good defensively. Their first periods have been, by Ice Tilt analysis, pretty bad in the playoffs, particularly on the road.
Of the 10 worst first periods of the playoffs by Time with Tilt, the Stars are on the wrong end of four of the worst five (three of which were on the road).
They got crushed by Vegas in a first period, and then Colorado, and then twice by Edmonton.
As much as it would be easy to jump to the conclusion “They aren’t prepared to start the games,” I’m not sure the way they’ve played to start games has been a failing. It’s felt more like some desperate teams flailing wildly for a knockout punch, while the Stars rope-a-dope to keep it close.
Those four games with the rough first periods that you saw above? Dallas won three of them, which contributes to their 6-1 record on the road in the playoffs. In those four first periods, despite getting territorially dominated, they only allowed three goals. And when we break it down with the metric “Significant Ice Tilt” – which means that the average amount of Tilt isn’t just past the centre red, but all the way past the blue line – the Stars don’t show up on any of the “worst” lists, not even once.
So teams are consistently controlling play past centre against Dallas, sure, but not in a very dominating or threatening way. The Oilers controlled the Game 3 Ice Tilt, but NHL EDGE IQ powered by AWS had the Time with Significant Tilt as just a nine-second advantage for the Oilers.
This feeds into the eye test that the Stars are a responsible team that packs the house, keeps their opponents outside, and doesn’t allow many Grade A looks. Their defence can kill possessions, and they bring forwards back low to help on the defensive side of things at the cost of creating rush opportunities the other way. (Note on that: the return of Roope Hintz changed things for Dallas, who graded out far better in the rush game with their speedy centre in the lineup.)
We also know the Stars bounce back with great second periods. In the post-season we’ve seen them rip the game back from the teams who came out hot against them, almost like they’ve rope-a-doped them tired, and are finally ready to start harvesting a ripe opponent. Check out the second period response that comes at even strength in Game 3 and pushes deep into the Oilers’ end.
Dallas answered Edmonton’s initial push by scoring three times in the second before the Oilers registered a single shot on net.
Throughout the playoffs the Stars have registered 39 more scoring chances than their opponents in the middle frame, and have nearly doubled them up on slot shots, 92-50. These stats come despite offensive zone possession times almost dead equal to their opponents in those periods (seven seconds difference), showing once again how teams may possess the puck against Dallas, but struggle to do anything of value with it.
The Oilers wrestled back the second period in terms of Time with Tilt , but that’s partially thanks to a power play spent in the Stars’ end.
Overall, the Oilers have been on Dallas’ half of the rink far more than their own and, in general, that pays dividends for teams. In theory, it should be tiring for Dallas’ defence, all this chasing around great players and blocking shots. It should allow the Oilers the opportunity to get “lucky,” which teams earn by taking the play to their opponents.
But the Stars are comfortable being uncomfortable so far in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and the immense trust in their goalie allows them to hang around and wait for their opponent to take the foot off the gas.
Dallas may not always be the most dynamic team, or the one with the most firepower. But you better take advantage of the chances they do give you and knock them out, because those looks don’t come often. And you can rest assured knowing that, at some point, if the Stars are still on their feet they’re going to punch back.
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