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Just like that, the Houston Astros have traded away the second-best, free-agent position player in next year’s class.
Perhaps that’s a freedom that is earned through recent success; eight consecutive post-season appearances and two World Series wins in four trips during that time. A freedom granted to general manager Dana Brown, despite the fact he’s only been in the job for a year and wasn’t part of those World Series. A freedom that comes from confidence in your organization’s scouting and development capabilities and – yes – playing in a state with no personal income tax.
Or maybe it’s just having enough good players around to do it.
But it was hard to watch the machinations surrounding Kyle Tucker’s trade to the Chicago Cubs last week and not think about the Toronto Blue Jays and where they are with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – quite likely just above Tucker as the most sought-after position player in next year’s free-agent class.
So, let’s make some assumptions before we ask the question: how did we get here?
We know that the Blue Jays took a hit in ticket sales last season, but for now let’s take president and chief executive officer Mark Shapiro at his word when he says he doesn’t foresee any major decrease or increase in payroll. And let’s acknowledge, at least, that Shapiro is in the final year of a five-year extension … and we all know how aggressive Alex Anthopoulos was in 2015 when he started to realize his time with the organization was ending. They’re not the same people, Shapiro and Anthopoulos. But let’s at least be aware of the context.
These seem to be the possibilities:
• Everybody needs to relax because good work is being done behind the scenes and this front office doesn’t leak. And its definition of “sense of urgency” differs from everyone else. I mean, when Santa makes a list, he only checks it twice. If the Blue Jays front office ran Christmas, the kids would be waiting until sometime in May for their gifts … and they probably wouldn’t get what they wanted.
But we also know that this ownership group is committed to sports and to the teams it owns at a level we have not seen in this country – Rogers owns the Blue Jays and Sportsnet and is in the process of becoming the majority shareholder of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment. They don’t skimp on the lightbulbs.
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Maybe there will be a news conference today. Tomorrow. Next week … next month. Spring training. Whenever. At worst, the Blue Jays get another year of Guerrero, Jr., and Bo Bichette, who also is entering his last season before free agency. Still: the Blue Jays and Guerrero have gone to an arbitration hearing just once. That was last season when there was a $1.85-million difference in the teams offer and Guerrero’s request.
So, Guerrero’s agent and the Blue Jays seem to have agreed on his value more often than not and that should have counted for something by now. Juan Soto’s $765-million deal with the New York Mets is important less for its heft than its average annual value and opt-outs. Rafael Devers’ 10-year, $313.5-million deal, signed in 2023 at the age of 26 with the Boston Red Sox, no longer counts as a starting point for these talks, due to the market.
But with the top two first baseman in the game destined to earn $27.5 million (Bryce Harper) and $27 million (Freddie Freeman) in 2025 and Guerrero sure to build on last season’s $19.5-million figure … people, I’m just not sure that the math has ever been all that complicated for a club running a $235-million payroll with great gobs of it about to come off. Do this right, add in some opt-outs, and if it doesn’t work out Guerrero could be able to go back into free agency at 31 or 32. Or maybe …
• The Blue Jays front office has pooched this and misread the market completely, or …
• The Blue Jays front office has doubts about giving Vladdy what will far and away be the biggest contract in club history because of something they’re seeing in their internal metrics. Maybe it’s simply caution stemming from a belief that Guerrero’s post-season performances have not been stellar, and his 2024 rebound occurred without the pressure of being on a contending team.
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Remember: his signing carried Alex Anthopoulos’ imprimatur. And while I think people needed to let Shapiro’s thoughts about Vladdy being a “generational player,” breathe a little bit before reacting, well, they are a matter of public record. Or maybe – just maybe, Vladdy is unsigned because …
• He doesn’t want to be here, at least not enough to skip the free-agent market. This isn’t my first rodeo, folks: you’d be surprised what players and agents will throw out there to paint the other side as bad guys. When it comes to public statements or suggestions, it’s best to assume you’re being played.
We spoke to Friend of the Show David Samson about this on Blair & Barker and Samson offered a different twist: at least the Blue Jays aren’t acting like they need to trade Vladdy before free agency. At least the organization seems inclined to hang on to both potential free agents, take one more run at this, and simply collect compensatory draft picks. At least there’s no teardown being ordered.
I guess there’s validity in that. I’ve often wondered whether there isn’t something to be said for trading Vladdy this season if you know you’re going to lose him at the end of 2025. Yet I also don’t know how this fanbase would react to seeing him go for the same type of return the Astros received for Tucker, which experts such as The Athletic’s Keith Law think was, well, OK.
I don’t know if OK would be enough for people, because Guerrero represents something more profound than Tucker: he was the guy who was going to bring back the magic of 2015-2016. He was the reward for the turgid stuff that happened after the Bautistas, Encarnacions and Donaldsons ran out of time. He was the star of the next act, a god-blessed national brand due to his father’s link with the Montreal Expos. Plus, there’s not much left if he leaves.
Funny. I remember doing interviews with Shapiro early in his tenure and whenever Vladdy or Bo came up he was quick to remind that in his previous job with Cleveland he was aggressive in trading for and signing long-term deals with young players. Yet so far, the most notable extensions to players delaying their first foray into free agency are Randal Grichuk and Jose Berrios.
Bichette’s deal simply brought out three arbitration years and you and I could have done the math on that. That’s surely due in part to the organization’s awful drafting record – they haven’t drafted anybody good enough to warrant a long-term deal – but … they do have Vladdy.
The off-season isn’t over. Free agents Anthony Santander, Pete Alonso … they have the usual flaws that come with age. But they’d make the lineup better. Corbin Burnes is still out there, if the Blue Jays want to cough up a sevenish-year deal to double down on pitching. The Blue Jays have already traded for Andres Gimenez and there will surely be more commodities on the trade block that could address the team’s lineup and bullpen issues.
But in and around all this, I can’t help but wonder at the incongruency of the Blue Jays being grateful to have a seat at the table in bidding for Shohei Ohtani and Soto in consecutive winters while Vladdy is sitting in the waiting room. He’s next year’s free-agent grand prize winner and he’s all theirs, just as he’s been all theirs for the better part of six years. There has to be some value in that, no?
Jeff Blair hosts Blair & Barker on Sportsnet 590 The Fan and Sportsnet. It’s also available wherever you get your favorite podcast.
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