NFL Week 15 Pick ‘Em: Can Bills upend Lions on the road?

December 14, 2024

With some juicy matchups set for this weekend, Richard Janvrin makes his Week 15 picks against the spread with odds from the BetMGM sportsbook.

EDMONTON — When the season began, the hockey world looked at the Edmonton Oilers blue line and thought, “Oooh, boy…”

The Oilers had lost three players from a Stanley Cup defence corps that not everybody loved in the first place — Cody Ceci, Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais — and Stan Bowman had replaced them with journeymen Troy Stecher, Travis Dermott, and Josh Brown, plus some kid named Ty Emberson who had 30 NHL games to his name.

The best this blue line could possibly dream of, we all agreed, was to get the Oilers to the Trade Deadline where they could add one or two defencemen for the playoffs. And there existed every possibility that this group would not be able to get them to March in contention.

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async function fetchOddsData(league, gameId) {
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const homeTeam = data?.data?.game?.home_team;
const homeTeamLogo = data?.data?.game?.home_team?.image_url_90;
const gameTimestamp = data?.data?.game?.details?.timestamp;

return { oddsData, visitingTeam, visitingTeamLogo, homeTeam, homeTeamLogo, gameTimestamp };
}

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let gameDate = new Date(gameTimestamp * 1000);
const gameDateFormatted = gameDate.toLocaleDateString(‘en-US’, { year: ‘numeric’, month: ‘long’, day: ‘numeric’ });

container.innerHTML = `

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$${homeTeam.short_name} Logo$

Moneyline

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${oddsData.home_money > 0 ? `+${oddsData.home_money}` : oddsData.home_money}

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Today, with the Vegas Golden Knights in town for a crucial Saturday matinee, the Oilers sit eighth in the NHL in goals allowed per game. Their team defence, goaltending and that wonky back end have combined for the second lowest goals against in the NHL over the past month.

“Since I’ve been here,” began Mattias Ekholm, “that’s been the strength of this D-corps. We really don’t listen to too much noise, whether it’s from outside the seven of us, outside the room or whatnot.”

There’s plenty going on inside this group these days, with Evan Bouchard listed as “a game-time decision” by head coach Kris Knoblauch after that hit from Ryan Hartman Thursday in Minnesota, and Dermott lost on waivers to the Wild on Friday, replaced by a cast-off named Alec Regula.

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The top pair of Ekholm and Bouchard have been predictably excellent after a slow start that mirrored the rest of the team. But it’s the group below, led by Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak, that has made up most of the shortfall.

Stecher has quietly been very effective, and Emberson — now at just 57 NHL games played — has been the major surprise.

Each of those four defencemen — Nurse, Kulak, Stecher and Emberson — have played better than expected through the opening third of the season. And since the top pairing has found its game, this is a functioning defence that — frankly — is playing at a higher level than anyone outside the Oilers dressing room gave them credit for.

“A big attribute goes to Kris (head coach Knoblauch), and a big, big reason for it is Paul Coffey,” Ekholm said. “He’s done a really good job of keeping us a tight-knit group and makes it exciting to come to rink every day. And he’s also pushing us to make plays, to be part of the offence. Not to just stand there and chip the puck out.”

When we all talked about ways that this D-corps might be able to survive until the Trade Deadline, the one prediction that nobody made was that Nurse would find a game he’s been seeking for years. His game, at age 29, has never been better, moving the puck reliably, skating it like a horse, defending responsibly and playing with an edge that had gone missing over the years.

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He’s played 208 minutes next to Stecher, and 138 minutes with Kulak.

The ability of Kulak — widely considered to be no better than a third-pairing player — to eat a steady diet of Top 4 minutes is another reason this blue line has overperformed.

“I refuse to put a player in a box and tell myself, ‘That’s all he can do,’” Coffey said on Friday. “It’s about them committing, wanting to be taught, wanting to challenge themselves.

“Like I’ve always said to (Kulak): ‘I don’t know how a guy can skate that well and not do better than you do. Let’s go.’”

Coffey’s philosophy?

“Push ‘em, push ‘em, push ‘em.”

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Coffey knew he needed those two veterans, a pair who have nearly 1,200 games and three Stanley Cup Final appearances between them, to raise their game if this D-corps was going to survive.

“I said to Nurse and Kuly at the start of the year,” Coffey said. “I’m going to start giving you guys more, but it comes with a price. I’m not giving ice time to you just because I’m giving it to you. You’ve got to play.

“You’ve got to show me you can play.”

They’ve reciprocated, and even though it’s still a given that Bowman will bring in a defenceman at the Deadline, now his options have shifted.

Does he bring in an offensive D-man to play with the steady Nurse? Does he play Kulak full-time on his offside with Nurse, and find a solid, stay-at-home penalty killer for the third pairing?

Does he need that second guy now? Or one defenceman and a depth centreman, perhaps?

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Whatever he does, the fact this blue line has exceeded expectations has the Oilers right back on the board as a Stanley Cup contender. Since Knoblauch was hired on Nov. 12, 2023, the Oilers have the third-best winning percentage in the NHL (.679) and the fifth-best goals against per game (2.71).

They’ve found a groove here with wins over Tampa, Minnesota, and an 8-2-0 mark in their past 10.

“We needed guys to step up,” said Ekholm, “We might not have the flashiest of names on the back end, but I think we do a really good job of playing to our capabilities and trying to give the team a chance to win every night.”

They’re better than most thought they’d be, I’ll give him that.

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NFL Week 15 Pick ‘Em: Can Bills upend Lions on the road?

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This Is Amazing News For All Golfers

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You'll NEVER get to the top of your game on your own

Why The OTI Method Is So Effective

This Is Amazing News For All Golfers

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